· Analysis updated 07:16 UTC
Extension Gunners vs Gaborone United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Extension Gunners and 1.43 for Gaborone United, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Gaborone United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Gaborone United win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Extension Gunners home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gaborone United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 17% / 27% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Extension Gunners and 1.43 for Gaborone United, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.9%
- 0–212.7%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Extension Gunners
- 2026-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galaxy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs TAFIC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Police XI · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Township Rollers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nico United · 1-0 (W)
Gaborone United
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nico United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Police XI · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Morupule Wanderers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Young Africans · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Tonota | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Galaxy | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Centre Chiefs | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Orapa United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Extension Gunners | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | TAFIC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Police XI | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Nico United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Township Rollers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Enesia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Matebele | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | BDF XI | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Prisons XI | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Morupule Wanderers | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gaborone United win, at 55.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.