Estadio Francisco de la Hera · Referee J. M. Aranda Delgado · Analysis updated 03:32 UTC
Extremadura 1924 vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Extremadura 1924 and 0.85 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Extremadura 1924 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Extremadura 1924 home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cultural Leonesa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Extremadura 1924 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Extremadura 1924 and 0.85 for Cultural Leonesa, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.8% vs market 50.7%, edge +12.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 50.7% | 62.8% | 1.59 | +12.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.0% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 39.2% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.5% | 31.6% | 3.16 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.4% | 68.4% | 1.46 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 29.4% | 28.9% | 3.46 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 71.6% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.3% | 37.2% | 2.69 | -12.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Extremadura 1924
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Racing Ferrol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
Cultural Leonesa
- 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T18:30:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · Extremadura 1924 0-1 Cultural Leonesa (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Cacereño | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Extremadura 1924 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Unión | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Mérida AD | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Ponferradina | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Athletic Club II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 12 | Zamora | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Cultural Leonesa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.