· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Eyüpspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.83 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Kasımpaşa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Kasımpaşa win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eyüpspor home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kasımpaşa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Eyüpspor and 1.83 for Kasımpaşa, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–37.6%
Recent form
Eyüpspor
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanyaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 0-1 (L)
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kasımpaşa win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.