· Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
Ezra vs Lao Army Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Ezra and 0.62 for Lao Army, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Ezra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ezra win
82.9% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ezra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 12% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Ezra and 0.62 for Lao Army, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 44%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 83% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 3–012.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 4–08.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Ezra
Lao Army
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Lao League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ezra | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
| 2 | Salavan United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Viengchanh | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Savannakhet | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Luangprabang FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Champasak United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Namtha United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 8 | Lao Army | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 9 | Lao Toyota | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 10 | Master 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
| 11 | Oudomxay Entremets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ezra win, at 82.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.