· Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Ezra vs Savannakhet Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Ezra and 1.05 for Savannakhet, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Ezra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ezra win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
2.79 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ezra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for Ezra and 1.05 for Savannakhet, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 74% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.2%
- 3–07.8%
- 1–16.3%
Recent form
Ezra
Savannakhet
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Lao League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ezra | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 |
| 2 | Salavan United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Viengchanh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Savannakhet | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Luangprabang FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
| 6 | Champasak United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Namtha United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Lao Toyota | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 9 | Lao Army | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 10 | Master 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
| 11 | Oudomxay Entremets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ezra win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.