· Analysis updated 15:27 UTC
Førde vs Aalesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Førde and 2.45 for Aalesund, a combined total of 4.12. That distribution gives Aalesund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Aalesund win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Førde home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aalesund away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aalesund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 26% / 19% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Førde and 2.45 for Aalesund, a combined 4.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–16.7%
- 1–36.6%
- 2–15.6%
Recent form
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Aalesund
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM Oslo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Aalesund win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.