· Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Førde vs Fana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Førde and 2.43 for Fana, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Fana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fana win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Førde home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–15.8%
- 2–35.7%
- 1–15.4%
Recent form
Førde
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Os · 0-2 (L)
Fana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Vard · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brann II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · Førde 0-3 Fana (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · Førde 2-1 Fana (3. Division - Girone 3)
- 2025-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · Førde 5-7 Fana (3. Division - Girone 4)
- 2025-07-19T13:00:00.000Z · Førde 0-0 Fana (3. Division - Girone 4)
- 2024-08-10T12:00:00.000Z · Førde 1-2 Fana (3. Division - Girone 1)
- 2024-06-08T13:00:00.000Z · Førde 3-2 Fana (3. Division - Girone 1)
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fana win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.