Parque Municipal dos Desportos de Fafe · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Fafe vs São João Ver Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fafe and 0.84 for São João Ver, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Fafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Fafe win
55.3% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fafe home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
São João Ver away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Fafe
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Leça · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Guimaraes B · 1-1 (D)
São João Ver
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Marco 09 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Florgrade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Trofense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fafe · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Fafe 3-1 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2026-04-28T19:00:00.000Z · Fafe 1-2 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Fafe 0-1 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2026-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Fafe 4-0 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2025-10-05T15:15:00.000Z · Fafe 2-0 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2025-01-11T11:00:00.000Z · Fafe 1-4 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Fafe 2-1 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2023-04-29T14:00:00.000Z · Fafe 0-0 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2023-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · Fafe 2-1 São João Ver (Liga 3)
- 2022-12-18T11:00:00.000Z · Fafe 1-2 São João Ver (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fafe win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.