City Light Stadium · Analysis updated 00:23 UTC
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.26 for JEF United Chiba, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Fagiano Okayama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fagiano Okayama home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JEF United Chiba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fagiano Okayama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.26 for JEF United Chiba, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–27.3%
Recent form
Fagiano Okayama
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T04:55:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 1-0 (W)
JEF United Chiba
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.