JFE Harenokuni Stadium · Referee Yoshimi Yamashita, Japan · Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Fagiano Okayama vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.03 for Kyoto Sanga, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Fagiano Okayama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fagiano Okayama win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fagiano Okayama home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kyoto Sanga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Fagiano Okayama
- 2026-10-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Kawasaki Frontale · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T04:55:00.000Z · H vs Vissel Kobe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagoya Grampus · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Avispa Fukuoka · 1-2 (L)
Kyoto Sanga
- 2026-10-24T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Machida Zelvia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2026-04-11T07:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 1-5 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2026-03-08T03:55:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2025-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 0-5 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2025-02-15T05:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2021-11-20T07:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 0-0 Kyoto Sanga (J2 League)
- 2021-06-26T09:30:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 0-2 Kyoto Sanga (J2 League)
- 2020-11-04T10:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kyoto Sanga (J2 League)
- 2020-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Kyoto Sanga (J2 League)
- 2019-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · Fagiano Okayama 3-0 Kyoto Sanga (J2 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fagiano Okayama win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.