Hafezieh Stadium · Analysis updated 10:56 UTC
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Fajr Sepasi and 1.12 for Aluminium Arak, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Aluminium Arak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fajr Sepasi home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aluminium Arak away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aluminium Arak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 31% / 30% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Fajr Sepasi and 1.12 for Aluminium Arak, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Fajr Sepasi
- 2026-10-25T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Nassaji Mazandaran · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-19T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Paykan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminium Arak · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Sepahan FC · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Foolad FC · 0-1 (L)
Aluminium Arak
- 2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs ZOB Ahan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanat Naft · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fajr Sepasi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Malavan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 2 | Sepahan FC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 4 | Esteghlal FC | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gol Gohar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Chadormalu SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Paykan | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Malavan | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | ZOB Ahan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Sanat Naft | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -13 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.