Fakel U19 vs Rubin Kazan U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Fakel U19 and 1.18 for Rubin Kazan U20, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Fakel U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fakel U19 win

48.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fakel U19 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rubin Kazan U20 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fakel U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Fakel U19 and 1.18 for Rubin Kazan U20, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fakel U19 win49%

Draw24%

Rubin Kazan U20 win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–09.7%
2–19.5%
2–08.1%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Fakel U19

2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chertanovo U20 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moskva U19 · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Moskva U19 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nizhny Novgorod U19 · 0-0 (D)

Rubin Kazan U20

2026-09-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasnodar U19 · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Akademiya Konoplev U20 · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural U20 · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Zenit U19 · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rostov U19 · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Youth Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CSKA Moskva U19	26	20	2	4	49	62
2	Zenit U19	25	17	3	5	38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	17	2	6	33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	16	3	6	32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	15	5	6	22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	13	5	7	12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	12	5	8	-2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	7	10	8	-4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	9	4	12	-7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	9	2	14	-8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	8	3	14	-23	27
12	Ural U20	26	7	4	15	-23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	26	6	5	15	-26	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	6	4	15	-34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	4	4	17	-25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	4	3	18	-34	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fakel U19 win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.