Fakel Stadium · Referee Anton Frolov, Russia · Analysis updated 21:41 UTC
Fakel vs Zenit Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Fakel and 1.75 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Zenit the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zenit win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fakel home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zenit away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.7%
- 0–214.6%
- 1–110.0%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
Fakel
- 2026-10-10T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Vitebsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Moscow · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baltika · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 1-3 (L)
Zenit
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Shenhua · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Baltika · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotiv · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · Fakel 0-1 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2025-03-08T11:30:00.000Z · Fakel 0-2 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2024-10-22T13:15:00.000Z · Fakel 0-1 Zenit (Cup)
- 2024-09-21T13:30:00.000Z · Fakel 1-3 Zenit (Premier League)
- 2024-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · Fakel 0-3 Zenit (Cup)
- 2024-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Fakel 1-1 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Premier League)
- 2023-08-13T14:30:00.000Z · Fakel 0-2 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Premier League)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · Fakel 0-1 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Premier League)
- 2022-11-16T15:00:00.000Z · Fakel 0-2 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Cup)
- 2022-10-08T11:00:00.000Z · Fakel 1-1 Zenit Saint Petersburg (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zenit win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.