Clipbush Park · Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Fakenham Town vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fakenham Town and 1.64 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives AFC Rushden & Diamonds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fakenham Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Rushden & Diamonds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 31% / 24% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Fakenham Town and 1.64 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Fakenham Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wroxham · 0-2 (L)
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Peterborough Sports · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Desborough Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chasetown · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-24T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Irish · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.