Clipbush Park · Analysis updated 06:41 UTC
Fakenham Town vs St Neots Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fakenham Town and 1.45 for St Neots Town, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives St Neots Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fakenham Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St Neots Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Neots Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Fakenham Town and 1.45 for St Neots Town, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–08.1%
Recent form
Fakenham Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wroxham · 0-2 (L)
St Neots Town
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Corby Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedworth United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleshill Town · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.