· Analysis updated 19:01 UTC
Fakenham Town vs Ware Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Fakenham Town and 3.00 for Ware, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Fakenham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
58.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fakenham Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ware away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fakenham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 17% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Fakenham Town and 3.00 for Ware, a combined 6.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.0%
- 2–35.0%
- 3–25.0%
- 3–35.0%
- 2–43.8%
Recent form
Fakenham Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wroxham · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wroxham · 0-2 (L)
Ware
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Sudbury · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fakenham Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fakenham Town · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 90% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.