· Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
Făleşti vs Sheriff II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Făleşti and 1.28 for Sheriff II, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Făleşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Făleşti win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Făleşti home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sheriff II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Făleşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Făleşti and 1.28 for Sheriff II, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Făleşti
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Bardar · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Stăuceni · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC National Ialoveni · 1-0 (W)
Sheriff II
- 2026-04-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimp Comrat · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Făleşti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Bardar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vulturii Cutezători | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Iskra | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | FC National Ialoveni | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Univer Comrat | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Făleşti | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | Zimbru II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Făleşti win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.