Falcon Alkoholfri Arena · Referee Rinon Hasani, Sweden · Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Falkenbergs FF vs Norrby IF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.05 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Falkenbergs FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Falkenbergs FF win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Falkenbergs FF home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Norrby IF away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Falkenbergs FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.05 for Norrby IF, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Falkenbergs FF
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Varnamo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oddevold · 1-2 (L)
Norrby IF
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Helsingborg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ljungskile SK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Landskrona BoIS · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs GIF Sundsvall · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IFK Norrkoping | 26 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 58 |
| 2 | Falkenbergs FF | 27 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 45 |
| 4 | Ostersunds FK | 27 | 11 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 45 |
| 5 | Landskrona BoIS | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | Oddevold | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 39 |
| 7 | Osters IF | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | United Nordic | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Sandviken | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 35 |
| 10 | Ljungskile SK | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 32 |
| 11 | Helsingborg | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | IFK Varnamo | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 29 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | -6 | 27 |
| 14 | IK brage | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | -9 | 26 |
| 15 | Orebro SK | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | -12 | 25 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 26 | 6 | 1 | 19 | -38 | 19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Falkenbergs FF win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.