Falkirk Stadium · Referee S. McLean · Analysis updated 15:01 UTC
Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.53 expected goals for Falkirk and 1.33 for Rangers, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Rangers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rangers win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
0.53 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Falkirk home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rangers away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–120.8%
- 0–015.7%
- 0–213.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–08.3%
Recent form
Falkirk
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)
Rangers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs ST Mirren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Motherwell · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T11:30:00.000Z · Falkirk 2-5 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 3-6 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-11-30T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 0-0 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2025-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 1-1 Rangers (Premiership)
- 2020-11-29T17:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 0-4 Rangers (League Cup)
- 2016-03-18T19:45:00.000Z · Falkirk 3-2 Rangers (Championship)
- 2016-01-30T15:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 0-1 Rangers (Championship)
- 2015-12-19T12:30:00.000Z · Falkirk 2-1 Rangers (Championship)
- 2015-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 1-3 Rangers (Championship)
- 2015-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 2-2 Rangers (Championship)
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Heart Of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | ST Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Dundee Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | ST Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rangers win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.