Falkirk vs Stranraer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Falkirk and 1.33 for Stranraer, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Falkirk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Falkirk win

61.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Falkirk home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stranraer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Falkirk win62%

Draw19%

Stranraer win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–17.6%
3–17.4%
2–06.9%
2–26.1%

Recent form

Falkirk

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ST Johnstone · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Heart Of Midlothian · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rangers · 1-2 (L)

Stranraer

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Edinburgh City · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs East Kilbride · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dumbarton · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 3-0 Stranraer (League Cup)
2022-06-28T18:30:00.000Z · Falkirk 1-0 Stranraer (Friendlies Clubs)
2020-02-01T15:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 1-1 Stranraer (League One)
2019-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 3-0 Stranraer (League One)
2019-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Falkirk 3-0 Stranraer (League One)
2019-07-16T18:45:00.000Z · Falkirk 1-0 Stranraer (League Cup)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Falkirk win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.