· Analysis updated 06:38 UTC
Falmouth Town vs Frome Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Falmouth Town and 1.37 for Frome Town, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Falmouth Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Falmouth Town home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Frome Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Falmouth Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Falmouth Town and 1.37 for Frome Town, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Falmouth Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Willand Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Melksham Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Sporting Club Inkberrow · 3-1 (W)
Frome Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Malvern Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sholing · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.