· Analysis updated 16:40 UTC
Fard Alborz vs Saipa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Fard Alborz and 0.76 for Saipa, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives Saipa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.2% probability
Expected goals
0.72 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Saipa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 30% / 37% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Fard Alborz and 0.76 for Saipa, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 19% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.7%
- 0–117.3%
- 1–016.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–26.6%
Recent form
Fard Alborz
Saipa
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Naft Bandar Abbas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Navad Urmia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahrdari Noshahr · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Fard Alborz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.