· Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Farense vs Fulham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Farense and 1.75 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Fulham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fulham win
55.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farense home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fulham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fulham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Farense and 1.75 for Fulham, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
Recent form
Farense
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacavenense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting CP B · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Felgueiras 1932 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Porto B · 3-1 (W)
Fulham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fulham win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.