Saunders Transport Community Stadium · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
Farnborough vs Chesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Farnborough and 1.25 for Chesham United, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Farnborough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farnborough win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farnborough home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chesham United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Farnborough
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Walton & Hersham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Uxbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dover · 0-1 (L)
Chesham United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Maidenhead · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ware · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Horsham · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Billericay Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T18:45:00.000Z · Farnborough 1-0 Chesham United (National League - South)
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Farnborough 0-1 Chesham United (National League - South)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · Farnborough 2-3 Chesham United (National League - South)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Farnborough 1-2 Chesham United (National League - South)
- 2025-02-04T19:45:00.000Z · Farnborough 2-1 Chesham United (National League - South)
- 2022-02-08T19:45:00.000Z · Farnborough 1-0 Chesham United (Non League Premier - Southern South)
- 2021-08-17T18:45:00.000Z · Farnborough 3-1 Chesham United (Non League Premier - Southern South)
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Ebbsfleet United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Weston-super-Mare | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 13 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 14 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 16 | Maidenhead | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 17 | Horsham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farnborough win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.