· Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Farnborough vs Uxbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Farnborough and 1.27 for Uxbridge, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Farnborough the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farnborough win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farnborough home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farnborough to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Farnborough and 1.27 for Uxbridge, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–07.3%
- 3–16.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Double chance — Draw/Away at 2.25 (model 43.9% vs market 40.6%, edge +3.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/AwayValue | 2.25 | 40.6% | 43.9% | 2.28 | +3.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 20.0% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.44 | 64.5% | 65.0% | 1.54 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 55.6% | 56.0% | 1.79 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.62 | 35.5% | 35.0% | 2.86 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 78.0% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 24.4% | 22.9% | 4.37 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.12 | 81.5% | 78.9% | 1.27 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Farnborough
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Walton & Hersham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Uxbridge · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dover · 0-1 (L)
Uxbridge
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Hornchurch · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lewes · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farnborough win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.