· Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
Farnham Town vs Cirencester Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Farnham Town and 2.25 for Cirencester Town, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Cirencester Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cirencester Town win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farnham Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cirencester Town away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cirencester Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 25% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Farnham Town and 2.25 for Cirencester Town, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–26.0%
Recent form
Farnham Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cirencester Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirencester Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-1 (W)
Cirencester Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Farnham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetlands · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Reading City · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cirencester Town win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.