· Analysis updated 13:03 UTC
Farroupilha vs Bagé Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Farroupilha and 0.93 for Bagé, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Bagé the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
77.2% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bagé away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bagé to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 23% / 36% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Farroupilha and 0.93 for Bagé, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 27%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 0–120.1%
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Farroupilha
Bagé
- 2026-07-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gramadense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gramadense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Farroupilha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany de Bagé · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brasil DE Pelotas · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Gaúcha table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brasil DE Pelotas | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Gramadense | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz RS | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 4 | Bagé | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Guarany de Bagé | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Monsoon | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 7 | Brasil Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Farroupilha | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.