· Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Farroupilha vs EC Novo Horizonte Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Farroupilha and 0.73 for EC Novo Horizonte, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Farroupilha the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farroupilha win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
EC Novo Horizonte away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farroupilha to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 13% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Farroupilha and 0.73 for EC Novo Horizonte, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 48%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 3–010.7%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Farroupilha
EC Novo Horizonte
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Clube 1992 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panambi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FBC Riograndense RS · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Sport Club | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 20 |
| 2 | Panambi | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Futebol Com Vida | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | São Paulo RS | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Farroupilha | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | FBC Riograndense RS | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -24 | 4 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farroupilha win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.