Farsta vs Nacka Iliria Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Farsta and 1.00 for Nacka Iliria, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Farsta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Farsta win

62.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Farsta home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacka Iliria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farsta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Farsta and 1.00 for Nacka Iliria, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Farsta win62%

Draw21%

Nacka Iliria win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

2–09.9%
2–19.9%
1–09.6%
1–19.6%
3–06.9%

Recent form

Farsta

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Smedby · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Forward · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nacka Iliria · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro Syrianska · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyköping · 3-0 (W)

Nacka Iliria

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syrianska FC · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haninge · 5-4 (W)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Karlslund · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fittja · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rågsved · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Södra Svealand table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Farsta	26	16	4	6	25	52
2	Sleipner	26	15	6	5	19	51
3	Nyköping	26	14	4	8	16	46
4	Forward	26	13	6	7	15	45
5	Rågsved	26	13	6	7	11	45
6	Haninge	26	13	5	8	12	44
7	Smedby	26	10	6	10	3	36
8	Fittja	26	11	3	12	0	36
9	Örebro Syrianska	26	10	4	12	1	34
10	Karlslund	26	8	7	11	-6	31
11	Nacka Iliria	26	9	3	14	-16	30
12	Syrianska FC	26	7	5	14	-17	26
13	Lindo FF	26	6	2	18	-20	20
14	Eker Örebro	26	5	3	18	-43	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Farsta win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.