Farul Constanta vs Chindia Targoviste Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Farul Constanta and 2.20 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined total of 4.40. That distribution gives Farul Constanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

59.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.20 – 2.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Farul Constanta home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chindia Targoviste away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farul Constanta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Farul Constanta and 2.20 for Chindia Targoviste, a combined 4.40 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Farul Constanta win40%

Draw20%

Chindia Targoviste win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–27.2%
1–26.5%
2–16.5%
1–15.9%
2–35.3%

Recent form

Farul Constanta

2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 4-3 (W)
2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)

Chindia Targoviste

2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Satu Mare · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ASA Targu Mures · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Slobozia · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga I table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucuresti	13	9	3	1	20	30
2	Rapid	13	8	3	2	8	27
3	Universitatea Craiova	12	8	2	2	18	26
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	13	7	2	4	1	23
5	Universitatea Cluj	13	7	1	5	5	22
6	FCSB	13	6	3	4	1	21
7	Farul Constanta	13	5	5	3	1	20
8	Uta Arad	13	5	3	5	-1	18
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	13	5	2	6	-1	17
10	Corvinul Hunedoara	13	4	4	5	-2	16
11	FC Botosani	13	3	5	5	0	14
12	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	12	3	5	4	-5	14
13	Arges Pitesti	13	3	3	7	-6	12
14	Oţelul	13	2	5	6	-6	11
15	FC Voluntari	13	2	2	9	-16	8
16	Csikszereda	13	1	2	10	-17	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.