Stadionul Viitorul · Referee Horatiu Fesnic · Analysis updated 21:21 UTC
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Farul Constanta and 0.92 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Farul Constanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farul Constanta win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farul Constanta home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Petrolul Ploiesti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farul Constanta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Farul Constanta and 0.92 for Petrolul Ploiesti, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.10 (model 54.2% vs market 44.3%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.10 | 44.3% | 54.2% | 1.85 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.4% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 26.9% | 3.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.75 | 24.2% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 73.1% | 1.37 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.1% | 48.9% | 2.04 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 51.5% | 51.1% | 1.96 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 45.8% | 2.18 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Farul Constanta
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
Petrolul Ploiesti
- 2026-09-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farul Constanta win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.