Central Stadium Hagi Academy · Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Farul Constanţa W vs Sparta Praha W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.12 expected goals for Farul Constanţa W and 1.91 for Sparta Praha W, a combined total of 5.03. That distribution gives Farul Constanţa W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farul Constanţa W win
61.9% probability
Expected goals
3.12 – 1.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farul Constanţa W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Praha W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farul Constanţa W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 16% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.12 goals for Farul Constanţa W and 1.91 for Sparta Praha W, a combined 5.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.3%
- 2–16.1%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 4–14.9%
Recent form
Farul Constanţa W
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SSU Poli Timişoara W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Praha W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Csikszereda MC W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Cluj W · 8-1 (W)
Sparta Praha W
- 2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Horní Heršpice W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanţa W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava W · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň W · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farul Constanţa W win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.