Terrain communal de Farvagny · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Farvagny / Ogoz vs Romontois Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Farvagny / Ogoz and 1.68 for Romontois, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Farvagny / Ogoz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farvagny / Ogoz win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Farvagny / Ogoz home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Romontois away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farvagny / Ogoz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Farvagny / Ogoz and 1.68 for Romontois, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Farvagny / Ogoz
- 2025-06-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pully Football · 3-3 (D)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Châtel-St-Denis · 4-2 (W)
- 2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique de Genève · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Romontois · 2-0 (W)
Romontois
- 2025-06-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Martigny Sports · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-06-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Collombey-Muraz · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-05-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Echichens · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vernier · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-05-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Farvagny / Ogoz · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Liga Interregional - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amical Saint-Prex | 30 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 61 |
| 2 | Martigny Sports | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 30 | 59 |
| 3 | Collex-Bossy | 30 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Terre Sainte | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 5 | Farvagny / Ogoz | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Pully Football | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 7 | Olympique de Genève | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 43 |
| 8 | Vernier | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 42 |
| 9 | UGS | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | Concordia Lausanne | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 37 |
| 11 | Signal | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 37 |
| 12 | Echichens | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Collombey-Muraz | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 14 | Romontois | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -13 | 35 |
| 15 | Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy III | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -15 | 32 |
| 16 | Châtel-St-Denis | 30 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -49 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farvagny / Ogoz win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.