FAS vs Firpo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for FAS and 0.95 for Firpo, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives FAS the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.95 – 0.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FAS home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FAS to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 32% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for FAS and 0.95 for Firpo, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FAS win34%

Draw32%

Firpo win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–015.0%
0–114.2%
1–014.2%
1–113.5%
0–26.7%

Recent form

FAS

2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Balboa · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Alianza · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Inca Aruba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Limeño · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 2-0 (W)

Firpo

2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Águila · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · FAS 3-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2026-04-26T01:00:00.000Z · FAS 1-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2026-03-01T01:00:00.000Z · FAS 2-0 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-11-09T01:00:00.000Z · FAS 1-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-09-08T00:00:00.000Z · FAS 2-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-03-27T01:30:00.000Z · FAS 2-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2025-01-30T02:00:00.000Z · FAS 0-3 Firpo (Primera Division)
2024-11-30T21:15:00.000Z · FAS 1-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2024-09-22T01:30:00.000Z · FAS 4-1 Firpo (Primera Division)
2024-03-31T01:30:00.000Z · FAS 0-4 Firpo (Primera Division)

Primera Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Firpo	15	9	4	2	17	31
2	FAS	16	9	4	3	12	31
3	Isidro Metapán	16	9	3	4	6	30
4	Águila	16	6	6	4	7	24
5	Inter	16	5	8	3	6	23
6	Platense	16	6	4	6	0	22
7	Alianza	15	4	8	3	1	20
8	Municipal Limeño	16	6	2	8	0	20
9	Inca Aruba	16	4	4	8	-16	16
10	Atletico Balboa	16	3	5	8	-8	14
11	Cacahuatique	16	2	6	8	-11	12
12	Fuerte San Francisco	16	2	6	8	-14	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.