· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Fasil Ketema vs Mekelakeya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.30 expected goals for Fasil Ketema and 0.77 for Mekelakeya, a combined total of 1.08. That distribution gives Mekelakeya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 43%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 10% for over 2.5 goals and 14% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 34%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
86.7% probability
Expected goals
0.30 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fasil Ketema home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mekelakeya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 13% / 43% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.30 goals for Fasil Ketema and 0.77 for Mekelakeya, a combined 1.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 10% and both teams to score at 14%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 34%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
58%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–034.1%
- 0–126.5%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–010.2%
- 1–17.9%
Recent form
Fasil Ketema
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadiya Hosaena · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Halaba Ketema · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Welayta Dicha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethiopian Medhin · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedus Giorgis · 0-1 (L)
Mekelakeya
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Mebrat Hayl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Ethiopia Bunna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 86.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 14% and over 2.5 goals at 10%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.