Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.66 for Bursaspor, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Bursaspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bursaspor win

49.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fatih Karagümrük home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bursaspor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bursaspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.66 for Bursaspor, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fatih Karagümrük win26%

Draw24%

Bursaspor win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
0–110.0%
1–29.5%
0–28.3%
1–06.9%

Recent form

Fatih Karagümrük

2026-10-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Muğlaspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Manisa F.K. · 1-1 (D)

Bursaspor

2026-10-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Muğlaspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mardin 1969 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Batman Petrolspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Esenler Erokspor · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bursaspor	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Kayserispor	12	8	3	1	17	27
3	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	Keçiörengücü	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Bodrum FK	12	4	5	3	4	17
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
11	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	2	6	4	-4	12
16	Pendikspor	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bursaspor win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.