Estadio Papa Francisco · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Fátima vs Academico Viseu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fátima and 1.14 for Academico Viseu, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Fátima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Fátima win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fátima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Academico Viseu away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fátima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Fátima and 1.14 for Academico Viseu, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Fátima
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 5-0 (W)
Academico Viseu
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Estoril · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Estrela · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vitória SC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fátima win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.