Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Fátima and 1.18 for Benfica Castelo Branco, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Fátima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fátima win

62.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.28 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fátima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica Castelo Branco away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Fátima win62%

Draw19%

Benfica Castelo Branco win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–18.5%
2–08.2%
3–17.3%
1–07.2%

Recent form

Fátima

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 5-0 (W)

Benfica Castelo Branco

2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Nogueirense · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 3-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Taça de Portugal)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 4-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
2025-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
2025-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
2024-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
2020-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
2019-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fátima win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.