· Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Fátima and 1.40 for Benfica Castelo Branco, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Fátima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Fátima win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fátima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica Castelo Branco away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Fátima
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 5-0 (W)
Benfica Castelo Branco
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Nogueirense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Alverca II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fátima · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval 1893 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oliveira Hospital · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 3-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Taça de Portugal)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 4-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2025-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 0-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2025-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2024-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2020-01-26T15:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
- 2019-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Fátima 1-0 Benfica Castelo Branco (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oliveira Hospital | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | UD da Serra | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Os Marialvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 4 | Mortágua | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | O Elvas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Naval 1893 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | AD Nogueirense | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlético Malveira | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Fátima | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Alverca II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Fazendense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fátima win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.