· Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Fátima vs Vinhais Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Fátima and 0.87 for Vinhais, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Fátima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fátima win
73.8% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fátima home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fátima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 16% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Fátima and 0.87 for Vinhais, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 54%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 3–17.9%
Recent form
Fátima
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oliveira Hospital · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Malveira · 5-0 (W)
Vinhais
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tirsense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maria da Fonte · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ançã · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-09-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Vianense · 1-2 (L)
- 2022-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vianense · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fátima win, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.