· Analysis updated 19:10 UTC
Fatsa Belediyespor vs Amasyaspor 1968 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fatsa Belediyespor and 0.72 for Amasyaspor 1968, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Fatsa Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fatsa Belediyespor win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fatsa Belediyespor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Amasyaspor 1968 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fatsa Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Fatsa Belediyespor and 0.72 for Amasyaspor 1968, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Fatsa Belediyespor
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Beykoz Anadolu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kars 36 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orduspor 1967 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Silivrispor · 2-0 (W)
Amasyaspor 1968
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bursa Yıldırımspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karabük İdman Yurdu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Karadeniz Ereğli BSK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kartal Bulvarspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cankirigucu · 10-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T11:00:00.000Z · Fatsa Belediyespor 0-1 Amasyaspor 1968 (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2025-12-16T10:00:00.000Z · Fatsa Belediyespor 1-0 Amasyaspor 1968 (3. Lig - Group 3)
- 2025-04-06T12:00:00.000Z · Fatsa Belediyespor 1-0 Amasyaspor 1968 (3. Lig - Group 2)
- 2024-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · Fatsa Belediyespor 1-1 Amasyaspor 1968 (3. Lig - Group 2)
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Galata | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Orduspor 1967 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | İnkılapspor | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Düzcespor | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Beykoz Anadolu | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Silivrispor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fatsa Belediyespor win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.