· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Fatsa Belediyespor vs Düzcespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Fatsa Belediyespor and 0.77 for Düzcespor, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Fatsa Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Fatsa Belediyespor win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fatsa Belediyespor home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Düzcespor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fatsa Belediyespor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 23% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Fatsa Belediyespor and 0.77 for Düzcespor, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Fatsa Belediyespor
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Beykoz Anadolu · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kars 36 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orduspor 1967 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Yalova Yeşilovaspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Silivrispor · 2-0 (W)
Düzcespor
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Karabük İdman Yurdu · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pazarspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zonguldak Kömürspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zonguldak Kömürspor · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Lig - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fatsa Belediyespor | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Pazarspor | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Küçükçekmece Sinopspor | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Galata | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Karadeniz Ereğli BSK | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Karabük İdman Yurdu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Kartal Bulvarspor | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Orduspor 1967 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 | Amasyaspor 1968 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Düzcespor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Beykoz Anadolu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Zonguldak Kömürspor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Tokat Bld Plevnespor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 14 | İnkılapspor | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Gölcükspor | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Silivrispor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Yalova Yeşilovaspor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 6 |
| 18 | Beykoz İshaklıspor | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fatsa Belediyespor win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.