· Analysis updated 05:01 UTC
Fauske Sprint vs Finnsnes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Fauske Sprint and 2.62 for Finnsnes, a combined total of 4.77. That distribution gives Finnsnes the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Finnsnes win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 2.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fauske Sprint home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Finnsnes away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Finnsnes to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 33% / 19% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Fauske Sprint and 2.62 for Finnsnes, a combined 4.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–35.5%
- 2–15.1%
Recent form
Fauske Sprint
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bossekop · 2-8 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Harstad · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Skjervøy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromsø II · 0-3 (L)
Finnsnes
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Skjetten · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Ulfstind · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromsø II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjervøy · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 56 |
| 2 | Fløya | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Harstad | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 49 |
| 4 | Alta | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 45 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 25 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Kongsvinger II | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 35 |
| 8 | Strømsgodset II | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Lillestrøm II | 25 | 10 | 1 | 14 | 16 | 31 |
| 10 | Fauske Sprint | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | -25 | 31 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 30 |
| 12 | Skjervøy | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | -28 | 27 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -37 | 22 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 25 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -53 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Finnsnes win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.