Estadio de la UNSA · Referee R. Segura · Analysis updated 16:25 UTC
FBC Melgar vs ADT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.21 expected goals for FBC Melgar and 0.65 for ADT, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FBC Melgar win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
2.21 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBC Melgar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADT away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FBC Melgar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 17% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.21 goals for FBC Melgar and 0.65 for ADT, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.0%
- 1–012.7%
- 3–010.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
ADT
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FBC Melgar win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.