· Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for FBC Melgar and 1.16 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Deportivo Garcilaso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBC Melgar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Garcilaso away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Garcilaso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 34% / 29% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for FBC Melgar and 1.16 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–010.4%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.