Estadio Monumental de la UNSA · Referee Kevin Ortega · Analysis updated 16:41 UTC
FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for FBC Melgar and 1.03 for Sport Boys, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FBC Melgar win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBC Melgar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sport Boys away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.2%
Recent form
FBC Melgar
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)
Sport Boys
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Alianza Atletico · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · A vs FBC Melgar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 1-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2026-04-15T01:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 3-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2025-10-20T23:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 0-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2025-06-14T18:15:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2024-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2024-05-05T20:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2023-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2023-05-12T20:30:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2022-10-19T22:15:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 3-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
- 2022-06-19T16:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 1-0 Sport Boys (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FBC Melgar win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.