FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for FBC Melgar and 1.13 for Sporting Cristal, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives FBC Melgar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FBC Melgar win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FBC Melgar home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Cristal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FBC Melgar win58%

Draw21%

Sporting Cristal win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.8%
2–08.8%
1–08.7%
3–16.7%

Recent form

FBC Melgar

2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Grau · 0-1 (L)

Sporting Cristal

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2026-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2025-08-10T16:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 0-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2025-03-08T23:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 1-0 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2024-08-22T00:30:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2024-03-14T02:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2023-07-23T20:30:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 1-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2023-02-17T21:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 0-1 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2022-11-06T20:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)
2022-11-02T20:00:00.000Z · FBC Melgar 2-0 Sporting Cristal (Primera División)

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	28	17	8	3	27	59
2	Universitario	28	14	8	6	12	50
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	28	14	6	8	14	48
4	FBC Melgar	28	13	8	7	16	47
5	Cusco	28	14	3	11	1	45
6	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	8	44
7	Alianza Atletico	28	12	7	9	7	43
8	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	28	12	7	9	-9	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	9	41
10	Sport Boys	28	10	8	10	1	38
11	Sport Huancayo	28	11	5	12	-6	38
12	Juan Pablo II College	28	9	8	11	-10	35
13	Atletico Grau	28	9	6	13	-5	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	-3	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	-11	28
16	ADT	28	6	8	14	-13	26
17	UCV Moquegua	28	6	7	15	-19	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	-19	15
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	22	40
2	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	17	10	4	3	4	34
3	Cienciano	17	10	3	4	12	33
4	Universitario	17	8	5	4	9	29
5	FBC Melgar	17	8	4	5	9	28
6	Cusco	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	17	7	5	5	3	26
8	Alianza Atletico	17	5	6	6	2	21
9	Comerciantes Unidos	17	5	6	6	-2	21
10	ADT	17	5	5	7	1	20
11	Sport Boys	17	5	5	7	-4	20
12	Sporting Cristal	17	5	4	8	-2	19
13	UTC Cajamarca	17	4	6	7	-5	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	-7	18
15	FC Cajamarca	17	4	5	8	-5	17
16	Atletico Grau	17	4	4	9	-6	16
17	Sport Huancayo	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Juan Pablo II College	17	4	4	9	-18	16
1	Sporting Cristal	11	7	1	3	11	22
2	Deportivo Garcilaso	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Alianza Atletico	11	7	1	3	5	22
4	Sport Huancayo	11	7	1	3	4	22
5	Universitario	11	6	3	2	3	21
6	Juan Pablo II College	11	5	4	2	8	19
7	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	7	19
8	Alianza Lima	11	5	4	2	5	19
9	Sport Boys	11	5	3	3	5	18
10	Cusco	11	6	0	5	4	18
11	Atletico Grau	11	5	2	4	1	17
12	Cienciano	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	FC Cajamarca	11	3	2	6	-6	11
14	Comerciantes Unidos	11	2	4	5	-1	10
15	Club Deportivo Los Chankas	11	2	3	6	-13	9
16	UCV Moquegua	11	1	4	6	-12	7
17	ADT	11	1	3	7	-14	6
18	UTC Cajamarca	11	0	2	9	-14	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FBC Melgar win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.