Estádio Torquato Pontes · Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
FBC Riograndense RS vs Real Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for FBC Riograndense RS and 2.55 for Real, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 2.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBC Riograndense RS home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 10% / 15% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for FBC Riograndense RS and 2.55 for Real, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.4%
- 0–39.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
FBC Riograndense RS
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Futebol Com Vida · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC Novo Horizonte · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-11-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-11-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Gabriel · 8-0 (W)
Real
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clube 1992 · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Rio Grande · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitoria Setubal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Panambi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs EC Novo Horizonte · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gaúcho - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 20 |
| 2 | Panambi | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Futebol Com Vida | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | São Paulo RS | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Cruz A. | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Farroupilha | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FBC Riograndense RS | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Clube 1992 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 9 | EC Novo Horizonte | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 3 |
| 10 | SC Rio Grande | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -20 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.