· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
FBK Karlstad vs Piteå Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for FBK Karlstad and 1.00 for Piteå, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives FBK Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FBK Karlstad win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBK Karlstad home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Piteå away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FBK Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for FBK Karlstad and 1.00 for Piteå, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.2%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.43 | 63.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +2.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.16 | 76.9% | 78.4% | 1.28 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.52 | 58.8% | 59.5% | 1.68 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 4.90 | 18.2% | 18.9% | 5.29 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 42.9% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.02 | 45.4% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.10 | 81.1% | 81.1% | 1.23 | 0.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.68 | 54.6% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.58 | 57.1% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.90 | 22.9% | 21.6% | 4.63 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.12 | 42.1% | 40.5% | 2.47 | -1.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.48 | 36.6% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -2.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FBK Karlstad
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sollentuna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
Piteå
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gefle IF · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Järfälla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Norra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 26 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 60 |
| 2 | Arlanda | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 48 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 45 |
| 5 | Enköping | 26 | 14 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 | IF Karlstad | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 44 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | -1 | 35 |
| 9 | Umeå FC | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 35 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -8 | 33 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | -14 | 31 |
| 12 | Vasalund | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 13 | Sollentuna | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -9 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -16 | 23 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | -23 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -19 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FBK Karlstad win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.