· Analysis updated 06:39 UTC
FBK Karlstad vs Sollentuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for FBK Karlstad and 1.09 for Sollentuna, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives FBK Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FBK Karlstad win
46.9% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FBK Karlstad home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sollentuna away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FBK Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for FBK Karlstad and 1.09 for Sollentuna, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 1.96 | 46.8% | 46.9% | 2.13 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.34 | 27.4% | 27.4% | 3.65 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 25.8% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FBK Karlstad
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Assyriska FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Eskilstuna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Umeå FC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sollentuna · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IF Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
Sollentuna
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stocksund · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlberg · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stockholm Internazionale · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FBK Karlstad · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · FBK Karlstad 0-0 Sollentuna (Ettan - Norra)
- 2026-06-18T17:30:00.000Z · FBK Karlstad 2-0 Sollentuna (Ettan - Norra)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · FBK Karlstad 1-2 Sollentuna (Ettan - Norra)
- 2024-04-20T14:00:00.000Z · FBK Karlstad 2-2 Sollentuna (Ettan - Norra)
Ettan - Norra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 45 | 64 |
| 2 | AFC Eskilstuna | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 3 | Hammarby Talang | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 48 |
| 5 | Enköping | 27 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 48 |
| 6 | FBK Karlstad | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 | Umeå FC | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Gefle IF | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -13 | 35 |
| 11 | Karlberg | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -10 | 33 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -22 | 28 |
| 14 | Piteå | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -16 | 24 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -21 | 23 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -21 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FBK Karlstad win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.